I have been buying since August in my ROTH retirement account. Yes I waited too long to begin buying, about five months too long. I have not felt a very strong urge to pick stocks since March and so many readers are leaving this blog. After all dollar cost averaging is boring, investing for a long term pattern is boring but it works better than anything else I have ever tried.
Speaking of my own long term pattern I will be pulling everything off the table as the DOW approaches 11,722 and the SPX approaches 1300. I see this area correlating to a demise in corporate earnings around Q1 of 2010. I see January through February as tough months in the markets if you are long. I think these months could be the start of the next huge wave of selling that will see us going below the old lows quicker than anyone can imagine.
I see a continued erosion of confidence in corporate expansion leading to less job creation, not more. The markets may love high unemployment now, but it will grow tired of less consumer spending.
The markets will grow tired of higher taxes, it will grow tired of buying stocks up as more unwinding takes hold in a whole new round of foreclosures and profit taking will ensue. It will grow tired of banks too scared to loan, and big and small business to scared to borrow.
This market will crush shorts for the next 15 to 20% move upward on heavier and increasing volume and by the time it does this most people will think the market will never crash again and the all clear signals abound. Then it will hit so quick and it will kill all hope and trust in our government to bail us out. This time down we lose it all, all hope.
There are too many people paying off debt, too many business' doing the same thing, and not enough risk taking for growth to take hold in a big enough fashion to put 8 million people back to work. Most of all we can not run fast enough to pay off the debt this administration has brought us.
The only thing that has taken place in 2009 is the averting of the coming Great Depression. They stalled it, they printed money and Gold flew, but they can not hide the unwinding that will take place. They can spend trillions behind our back and not account for it, they can lie, they can play with numbers, but they can not heal what is coming, only time will do that.
We have a long hard road coming in this country.
Anyone sounding the all clear now...they are fools, they know nothing.
Greg Ruffin
