There was a time before cap and trade talk stocks like Exxon Mobile (NYSE:XOM) were great stocks to have in ones portfolio, no longer.
The below link for XOM contains the perfect shorting chart.
Same looking chart for Shell.
Even Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is a good short.
I like DUG again. It's a buy again, confirming nicely.
My biggest argument here is the worldwide slow down in construction and the slow down in people who travel on vacations from flying to driving. In general I think this slow down continues and these oil company profits will drop.
I think XOM will have a huge drop in NET earnings on July 30, 2009 and so I claiming oil stocks a great place to short now.
I think DUG will go from the $20 range to the $40 range in the next two months.
I am still bullish on FAZ as well. Though I trade this etf on a constant basis along with FAS I still favor FAZ.
On a personal level I am growing more bearish again as if I wasn't bearish enough already. This slow down is now hitting closer to home more so than ever in my life. I have been in construction here in Dallas TX for almost 25 years. It has NEVER been this slow, not even in the 80's. There are people I know in the industry who are very productive, smart, great project managers and electricians who have lost their jobs.
There is NO one hiring here in this area, an area that is showing the slow down more so these days than ever. I was off on vacation for the last two weeks. I took the time to drive around the metroplex area looking at two main things, construction sites and FOR LEASE sings on all the buildings. I found few construction sites, the ones I did see are finishing up. The bidding process now has 20 contractors where only 2 or 3 might have estimated before. People are hungry for work and making no profits on the work they get.
I saw another scary thing. There are so many FOR LEASE sings up on all different types of buildings, from large to small, all over town, new buildings as well as projects just completed.
You can check this site out for all the empty office space out there.
Though we have a slow down our inventory is thinner than in prior years. I guess that's a plus, but I don't like what my peers are saying right now. It's slow and there is no work of any size coming any time soon. I hear it all over my industry here in this area.
This is where I see things right now, slow and getting slower.
Maybe where you live you see a different reality. I don't see it here.
V.
