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Tuesday, July 01, 2008

TIME TO SHORT MASSEY ENERGY, BY VFRTXN 7-1-08


Stocks do not go up forever and Massey Energy is about to become a testament of that old adage as well as what you might call a bubble showing signs of weakness. You might want to call it good old profit taking but the time is now to short Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE)
Study the chart below if you are so inclined and tell me what you see if you wish.
I see emotion. I see emotion that got way ahead of itself. The P/E is now way out of balance. This is a screaming sell. I remember how the experts were telling everyone to go into the emerging markets in October of 2007. Now the experts or most of them try to sell the safety of the energy sector. There are a few that are telling the truth, that a bubble has now formed in the energy sector. A safe haven is NOT one where everyone has flocked to and where an overbought state exists on heavy desperate emotion. It's as if the energy sector has become an island of security. I want to profit from that island of safety as the majority are snug in the thought they are safe from the sharks of the market. When too many people are crammed on an island I say short it as it becomes every-ones favorite island.
I have said in the past to take profit from Massey Energy and yes to have done so would have left a lot of profit on the table and yes I sold way to soon as well, BUT, I have never ever said short MEE, Massey Energy. There is also NEVER anything wrong with taking profit regardless of what people might say. How dare I even think such a thing, SHORT MASSEY ENERGY, MEE, say it ain't so. Well, light the fireworks because this holiday season, July 4Th, MEE gets sent off with the bottle rockets of profit taking. We will see MEE get sold off to the $62 mark within the next four months. Yes, that's my prediction and yes that is my opinion.
The future headlines, not far down the road will go something like this, read the bold print below.
"COAL DEMAND SLOWS AS WORLD ECONOMY SLOWS"
It will slow but not that much, but the human emotion factor will take MEE down as fast it took it up and with good reason. There are huge sums of money to be taken off the table by investors. I am talking fund managers that will fleece the market first and ask questions later so their performance is kept in check and they are providing huge returns for the portfolios they manage. I am not talking about small time investors. Massey now has a market cap over $7 Billion Dollars. There will be a couple of billion shaved off the top as profit taking begins. Those who take first will be the big winners.
So Massey, I will cover you at $62.
V.

From Russia With Love

By Fiftybillioncent

If you don't have Russia in your portfolio then you have been missing out. Russian stocks have been some of the best performing in the world. Russia has been raking in tremendous profits from its large oil, gas and mineral reserves. Wealth is rapidly changing the vast country as the middle class has grown to an all time high. However, it's not too late to get in on the action. Investors may get a rare opportunity as the markets start to cool. Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods OJSC(NYSE:WBD) is the largest Russian dairy, juice, bottled water and baby food producer. WBD is in a unique position as Russia is experiencing it's highest birth rates since the collapse of the USSR. Much of this is due to the fact that more and more couples are feeling financially secure enough to start a family. Yet, another primary reason for the boost in birth rates is due to the Russian governments program which pays couples thousands of dollars for having children. This program allows a young women to receive "a government hand-out of $9,000 - equivalent to about two years' income for most Russians - simply because she has more than one child." WBD is also in a unique position to profit from emerging markets as it has phenomenal exposure to Eastern Europe and the former Russian satellites Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. While higher input costs like grains and fuel have hurt WBD's bottom line, it still enjoys extremely high growth and profitability. WBD has a solid balance sheet and very little debt. The predicted weakening of the Russian market over the next two week may provide an opportunity to start a postion in Wimm-Bill-Dann. Conservative investors may want to hold off until WBD hits it's most recent low in the high $80's, however getting in at any price under $100 may be wise as WBD is already undervalued.

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