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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

THEN TODAY THE CHART EXPERTS SAY WE GO MUCH LOWER AS WELL, BY VFRTXN 11-18-08


``The final low will be much lower than this,'' and may not occur before the fourth quarter of next year, de Graaf said.

At a minimum, stocks are likely to revisit their lowest levels of 2002 and 2003, when a 51 percent slide from the March 2000 peak sent the S&P 500 as low as 768.63, said Mary Ann Bartels, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York.

These are echoes of what I have been saying as well lately and the one main reason I am NOT jumping into market with both feet and even 50% of my cash yet because I want it cheaper before I do so. I feel as these people do in the above article we are going much lower and it will take some time to do so.

"The index is headed for its biggest annual decline since the Great Depression, when it fell 47 percent in 1931. Of the 30 stocks in the S&P 500 that traded at $100 or higher at the peak, 24 now trade under that threshold, and eight fetch less than $50, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

Since the Great Depression is all I read now, everyone comparing our time to the past. It's why I call this and always have our own generations depression. It is very depressing and it's getting worse, not better. I said last night I feel like the next wave of heavy selling is coming as many millions of people sell out of their 401K's to salvage what certain funds are left. People are going to cling to what they have left and to hell with the future. They are going to want their money now if they didn't want it before, they will now, you watch and see human nature take over now with a bigger mass of people running for safety, like an imploding building people are going to stampede for the door before we cave in.

When the dust settles those who buy this grand exit will be the next cycles wealthy. The problem will be is that most people will not be able to survive without tapping their investments to pay the bills and this will drain more money from the markets. This is coming and most Americans will be broke when this thing finally settles down. The majority will not be able to buy the bottom, it's very clear now what is taking shape IMHO.

The bottom will come when most can not afford to buy it and when most are so shell shocked their generation may never go back into the markets. The markets may drift sideways with very little growth for a very long time after the final blow because of this.

VFRTXN

1 comments:

Uncle Len said...

HI Greg- I have a question for you. I am unclear on 2 points that you made. You say that those who will be able to buy the bottom will be the next cycles wealthy, but yet you mention the market will trade sideways for a long time. Will those with cash be wealthy from making trades daily or holding long-term? Thanks!
Fatty

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