I find it interesting to look back on this day after sharing my personal feelings and thoughts in this public forum this morning. I felt an an unusual unease. I could not get a clear picture of how to play today so I didn't. At lunch I logged in and my intuition told me to short the rally but I didn't. I actually got mad with how high the market went with all the facts. I was setting there telling myself this rally can not be. But to be honest I did nothing, I set on my hands and did nothing.
What a wonderful trade it would have been to have jumped back into SKF as I logged in at lunch only to have sold today in A.H.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda, oh well.
DWRD you did very well for fighting this frantic crazy hostile market. It is absolutely the craziest I have ever seen it. My congrats to you sir. You are extremely disciplined and plan well. You execute with precision and play the technicals that most people only dream of and most will never perfect. I think your call on the DOW going to as low as 8000 is gaining popularity. It certainly feels like there is nothing that will stop the decline. This bail out law that was passed today will fail to stop the slide. That was easy to write and it was that easy a year ago when I said everything the FED and Washington D.C. would throw at this crisis will fail. I have said the markets will work it out and the only thing these actions by the FED are good for is curbing the magnitude and degree of fear that would have come if they had not done something.
DWRD you are a great trader and I hope you continue to share with us your experience and methods and thoughts on the markets.
DWRD what do you think of the DOW chart over the last three months. I have never seen such an ugly violent looking chart. It is sickening violent weakness shouting at the top of it's lungs. I see total weakness and you say 8000 now for you seems realistic?
What a wild and crazy day. It seems they all are these days. I actually had a very stupid thought this morning when I woke up. I thought to myself it sure would be a freaky thing to see the DOW only drift upward say 10 points. What was I thinking? I think the more I stay away from this thing called the markets for awhile the safer I am going to be. I might get something cut off or burned off playing with fire. That can happen on days like this, getting whip sawed can break your neck and trading account and your heart and soul if you get to emotional.
FIRE.....this market is one hot bitch of a beast. Be careful all and God Bless.
V.
1 comments:
Greg, thanks for the compliments but I knew better than to hold NCC into that vote. I had my finger on the trigger ready to set a stop in the first 15 minutes of trading @ $4.13...a dollar from my purchase price. It traded up into the $4.20's for a few minutes. I had ample time to push and greed got the best of me. Visions of my "lucky" WB trade were still dancing in my head. I also should have dumped APPL in the first 15 minutes @ $106 instead of playing greedy and doubling down when it initially sank. I risked more money to make a trade I had to manage all day and I broke another rule of mine (never double down). Waste of time. Instead of going short at the vote like I should have, I was too busy closing out TOO MANY trades.
As far as the dow chart for the last 3 months, here it is. If you can cut and paste this somehow to the board so that members can see how treacherous it is, I think it would be helpful. Cut and paste and pull candles.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95223816506
From the beginning of September on, this market has been practically untradeable. It is certainly in a death spiral with the close at the low of day on friday. That last candle is called a shooting star and usually signifies more downside. I cannot say if that downside will come on Monday being that there are rumors of a FED rate cut, but I can say that any rally should be sold into the 9ema. It is dangerous to short as well. The indexes are EXTREMELY oversold and the VIX is above 45.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95223816506
It has also made a bull flag in the last 4 trading days. We may get a one or two day drop to the next line of support on the DOW which is your target of about 9300. Im sure a rate cut will stop that from happenning, as I am sure Paulson is relaying this to Bernake. But uncertainty rules the day. Therefore, I will not trade heavily again until this crazyness subsides.
I am holding GLD for more fundamental reasons than for technicals.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95223816506
I bought at the 50 and it has shaken weak hands below. I have a hard stop set at $76 where there is some weak support. It is retracing it's parabolic one day move from September 17 and 18 and is more than half way from the top to the bottom. If it reclaims the 50 and market sells and the FED cuts, this will and should lift GOLD to new highs. The bailout bill is also bullish for gold, although the weakening European currency is bearish. I will risk 10% here because of pure fundamentals. The printing press runs...gold goes higher. Rates drop...Gold goes higher. Or in at least it should...
This is crazy. The VIX over 45. And still no captiulation. I feel there will be NO capitulation. I feel that alot of money will move out of stocks and the market will form a base bottom before it is ready to enter into another uptrend. The temporary bottom I spotted back in July was a V bottom. They usually never work because there is no support formed. With a ton of money out of stocks, the volume will subside and a 4-12 month flat period will happen. There will be opportunities here to pick up some great values. There will be swing trading opportunities as well.
As far as I am concerned, I am very sick of day trading. I have made money doing it, but like I have said before, I have done best as a swing trader and as a long term holder. Unfortunately, if I am placing 10% stops on all swings (which I do), the market whippiness usually takes me out in a day or two if I am playing the chart and buying in the green (which I usually do when swinging.) Therefore, it is too difficult to swing here. There is no way I will hold anything long. So I must resort to day trading if I want to profit. Like I have mentioned here many times before, I like to day trade...when it is secondary to the other two. Right now it is primary. For this reason, I am trying to do what you are doing. Staying away. Hope you have a great weekend.
DWRD
PS. Wish you would have let me know you were in Niagra before you went, I am only 4 hours away. My wife and I are headed up there on the 17th, 18th, and 19th for a weekend getaway. We really like Niagra on the Lake and may just find a bed and breakfast there. I agree with you about the power of the falls. It puts things in perspective when you are standing on the maid of the mist and are staring up at it. Truely amazing.
If you like Falls, check out this link. My wife and I were here in 2006. Very affordable and very beautiful. Iguazu Falls on the border of Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina are simply amazing. Hundreds of falls. The southern end of the Amazon forest. You must go there one day. I really think you will appreciate it.
http://www.welcomeargentina.com/paseos/cataratas_iguazu/index_i.html
DWRD
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