A rescue plan will not open new demand for loans for growth. There exists to much FEAR for this to be successful at this time. Credit will remain tight until certain market dynamics take control to shift the current state of mind. Demand for loosening credit gates so fluid loans are made to stimulate the credit markets will remain restricted until total destruction of hope is created.
The REAL PROBLEM is that no one knows what monsters lie hiding in the markets that could rise up and cause havoc, example the credit default swaps that could unwind their destruction upon the main markets of the world. Until this unknown becomes totally destroyed, totally exposed this market will not bottom. There lies the potential of the negative impact of the coming credit card delinquencies which could rise to as much as $96 Billion in 2009.
We have not come face to face with a total destruction of hope in the markets as of yet. It really is that simple in my opinion. There will be a time when in this current down cycle when all hope is lost, where everyone seems to throw the towel in and the majority agree the end of the world and our economy is destroyed beyond repair for generations to come. Right now we are throwing darts of hope into hope with bail plans and this bail out money for the car industry and this bail out for states revenue streams going belly up never seems to end. Everyday there is a bail out request for something. I am placing my personal bail out request to the FED and to the Treasury Department tonight. I might as well and you should to. Let's all just get bailed out. Our government is great with bail out and rescue plans.
So you see, until there are no more bail outs, no more hope and waiting for some other shoe to drop this thing called a depression will depress us further. This nation will become more depressed with bail out requests for many other things to come. You watch and mark my word, this BAIL OUT PROCESS has only begun. It is going to be like giving crack to a crack addict. No pain no gain, no destruction of hope, no hope of a bottom. You know how a crack addict makes it back from HELL on Earth? There are only two ways crack addicts end up. They die from using the stuff or they cry out to God when all else fails. When all hope is extinguished and there is nothing left but death or reaching out to God while still living on Earth.
I am saying our economy will have to suffer a total lack of hope for economic expansion for it to bottom out this time. When hope is flushed we will truly begin a new cycle of growth. We are going to spend less as consumers now I promise you that. Do we really need so many things in our lives or can we be happy with less consuming and less credit? The lack of credit is going to force feed us this massive change. The lack of credit is going to slow down consumerism for a protracted period of time.
We will emerge on the other side of this morphing something brand new and different our generation will have created. The destruction of the credit markets will actually create more values and respect for living with more spiritual wealth than material wealth. It has already begun. I think we will become much more disciplined on the other side of this terror, this panic, this morphing. Change is always painful for the most part and this changing is tough for us all. We are NOT use to seeing these events in our economy, such vast and violent redistribution of wealth and I said we would see things we are not use to seeing and being a part of, but it is ours now, our generations great moment of change.
Once the hope is gone, the doom and gloom will leave the stage hand in hand with hope, it will no longer be the focus of fear. Fear will leave as the alpha main character upon the stage of world markets and then the bull will rise up again. The little bull will begin it's climb back up the wall of worry as it always has. There will be no wall of worry to climb until hope is destroyed and leaves center stage.
Our main problem concerning all world markets is not fear it's one simple word holding us back from creating the bottom everyone wants, HOPE. Hope keeps fear alive and well, fear thrives on hopes blood just as an experienced trader can tell you....HOPE kills a trade just as greed does. If you are hoping you are in a losing position concerning the markets. Right now, there is too much hope for a bottom to be set in place.
Kill hope and you kill everything that could destroy a new beginning cycle upward.
TOTAL CAPITULATION IS OUT THERE IN TIME SOMEWHERE for this current cycle. It may not come in the usual way but come it must and come it will, one way or the other.
One last provocative idea I want to share. Think deep about this psychology. What if our Federal Government actually mandated a law for regulating the MINIMUM PRICE of oil that our U.S. markets would allow in the U.S. alone. What if we said we are only going to pay for imported oil at say $40 to $50 bucks per barrel. If oil was forced onto the markets cheaper by OPEC we not buy it from them cheaper. Our government would never be controlled via OPEC flooding world markets with cheap oil. If oil became cheaper the difference or delta would be offset via huge tax breaks for individuals as well as business taxes throughout our economy. We could use reverse psychology with world exporters of oil. Since we consume most of it anyway we could set the minimum our government would allow us to buy it for. If oil exporters wanted to flood the markets with more they could but OUR BONUS would be massive tax cuts and it would stimulate the economy. If you think this is a crazy idea, take some time to really think it over. We would NOT be controlled as our oil companies begin drilling more domestically to challenge OPEC. It would stabilize the markets so we can expand our domestic expansion in a healthy economic environment. We could turn things around and we would control OPEC.
The time is upon our leaders to think outside the box. They have a hard time doing this. It would work, it's radical and has never been adopted nor tried, it's exactly what our economy needs because the right time and the right place in history is converging when it could be implemented.
RADICAL as it may sound it would work. People called me nuts for predicting a massive down turn in our economy. People will now say this idea is just as crazy.
If deeper thought than a few minutes was put to how it would work, it would become reality.
OIL is a national security concern. What better way than to control our own destiny than to control the minimum amount we would pay for a barrel of oil. If the price goes below the minimum then the delta goes into the over all economy via tax cuts, NOT PORK BARREL SPENDING. TAX CUTS would stimulate growth. Growth would increase tax revenues for the Federal Budget. We would see a real decline in national debt. The value of the dollar would gain support, value and discipline. No longer would our economy be the slave to oil, it would be it's benefactor, it would become our own built in governor of a balanced economy, not it's detractor or instrument of fear. TAX CUTS cut stimulate growth in new green and renewable energy technologies. These new growth industries could be fostered with this principle in place and the cost could be paid not by us but by our good friends who export massive amounts of oil to us. It would become the inverse of our current policies.
We would become the controller not the controlled. We would control OPEC.
Say it can't happen. That's what they told me about the economic melt down that is now here.
I will send this idea to Congress soon.
Chris I know you can help as well with this radical idea. I know you have ways and know people in certain places.
Email me tomorrow.
Tell me something is not possible and I will prove you wrong.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY ALL.
I appreciate everyone who has read our blog whether it is for the first time or since it's birth. It's our first year of many more to come. It's getting late and time to turn in.
THE TIME IS NOW FOR RADICAL CHANGE THAT HAS TOTAL POSITIVE IMPACT ON OUR LIVES,
in a time of need that hungers for strong positive change. The best time for radical change to be implemented is the death of hope and total lack of trust, when all else seems to have failed. That is the best time to induce radical outside the box thought processes when everyone else if focused on what use to work, the answer lies in finding solutions no one has ever thought of before. Then you sell it as workable and doable and dreams and thought become reality.
V.
