Below is a response to my post about interest rates and the DOW 10,357 level. In the response it mentions absolutely nothing about my target of 10,357 on the DOW within three years. I am specifying a target. What I did not do is make a general statement about the markets being lower or higher in the next three years as the person who wrote these comments inferred. If one is going to critique someone one should talk about the specific details and numbers and not something I did not quote nor should they take my thoughts out of context. People have a bad habit of twisting others peoples words and thoughts with their own without comparing apples to apples. I will make my point again for I stand behind my own thoughts with my own conviction in that the DOW will seek and find the 10,357 level as it's bottom within the next three years. The NASDAQ will seek and find the 2067 level and the S&P will bottom near the 1151 area. All three in my opinion are about 14.69% and within three years of their bottoms before the next growth cycle/bubble is ready to begin a new. The DOW has fallen about 14.9% since it's high of 14,280 in the last 8 months. I say over the next 36 months the other half or 14.69% give or take a fraction of a percent will be seen. Everyone has an outlook, a take on the markets, this happens to be mine and I have not been wrong about a protracted slow down since I began posting about it in late October some 8 months ago. I consider the past 8 months to be the first half of a 29% to 30% decline over all concerning our markets. We are half way there percentage wise but we have approx. 36 months to go before we find a solid base of support for our markets.
I also said there would be strong rallies that would fail in this bear market. I stated here the DOW would test twice the 13,100 level and fail. I stated not long ago we were about to fade back to the 12,000 area and we have. I have zero doubt and 100% conviction I am correct. I am not asking for anyone to follow me nor do I care about a following. What I do intend to do is find that my prediction of the future is solid and with many good reasons I have spelled out over the last 8 months. I posted here long ago that the consumer would be strapped by the ever increasing costs of energy. I have been wrong about the collapse of the price of crude oil. I stated in the past that by now crude oil would be falling in price like a rock because of weaker demand.
"Over the course of 3 years, the markets will at some point be higher than they are now and lower than they are now. This is also true of just about any stock picked at random. This is like giving a weather forecast that says, "It will either rain or it won't rain." Not much chance of being wrong, but it doesn't give anyone much useful information about the weather."
I also said there would be strong rallies that would fail in this bear market. I stated here the DOW would test twice the 13,100 level and fail. I stated not long ago we were about to fade back to the 12,000 area and we have. I have zero doubt and 100% conviction I am correct. I am not asking for anyone to follow me nor do I care about a following. What I do intend to do is find that my prediction of the future is solid and with many good reasons I have spelled out over the last 8 months. I posted here long ago that the consumer would be strapped by the ever increasing costs of energy. I have been wrong about the collapse of the price of crude oil. I stated in the past that by now crude oil would be falling in price like a rock because of weaker demand.
The statements are below that I am referring to in this post.
"Over the course of 3 years, the markets will at some point be higher than they are now and lower than they are now. This is also true of just about any stock picked at random. This is like giving a weather forecast that says, "It will either rain or it won't rain." Not much chance of being wrong, but it doesn't give anyone much useful information about the weather."
V.
2 comments:
"If one is going to critique someone one should talk about the specific details and numbers and not something I did not quote nor should they take my thoughts out of context. "
I couldn't agree more.
"I began posting about it in late October some 8 months ago. I consider the past 8 months to be the first half of a 29% to 30% decline over all concerning our markets."
What I find in going back to late October is that you were holding long, quite comfortable to be holding long, and advising people to not let others sway them into letting go of their long positions. Here's your post from Oct 29, the exact top of the market:
"10/29/07 From where we set in the stands on this fine sunny day we see our winners running in full stride. A few may stagger a bit but they are pacing themselves for the long run. They all must take a breather every now and then and when they do, don't let others sway you out of your conviction with emotional nonsense. Leave the emotions in the parking lot of this race, not in the stand of spectatorship.
In review of today I see these once again as my winners.
VMW
NYX
CVX
MSFT "
It is true that for weeks before the collapse you gave the blandest sort of CYA advice about taking "a little of the house's money off the table" but there was no advice to close out long positions or to go short,or that a severe correction was immanent. The fact is that you did not become truly negative until about the middle of March, just as the market was bottoming, and at the very moment it was time to re-position long. My main interest in this blog now is to see just how long you will continue to stubbornly hold on to your bearish view as the market moves to new all time highs later this year.
imminent*
and I distinctly remember this blog totally calling *ahead of time* the january drop...I felt similarly and went ultrashort for the new year, which was fun to watch.
Have any of you anonymous cowards ever tried to use the right side of your brain and see the bigger picture? I think not
Depending on the economic data in the upcoming week, look for yourself...
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Friday's rally will be erased and we will test the March lows, OR the market will trade up to 12,850ish.
The 13,180ish resistance area proved to be a double top and it is highly unlikely we will see it again. Perennial bulls need to be slapped in the face to understand this, THERE ARE NO POSITIVE CATALYSTS. I dont mean to just repeat Greg, but Ive grown up around the residential and commercial real estate business, and I can tell you we are not at the bottom, and this will be painful because of the nature of real estate, particularly residential. real estate is substantially less liquid than many other forms of investments of which have had their values slashed. human nature causes people to be attached to their homes unlike any other investment.
I think facilities like the bank-owned home auctions are a good way to get to the bottom of the problem, and flush the bloated market.
If you're gonna get emotional, get out of the market. Traders will continue to dominate the market as long as this high level of uncertainty remains.
peace
Post a Comment