Let's see the first thing I find while laying here examining the past before I look inside myself are those that keep posting to this blog that seem to have never read anything in this blog in the past. They show up here like preachers that have never met me nor my past nor are they familiar with exactly what they are talking about when they comment to me about stocks. What really fascinates me about people is their lack of research before they make comments. I have been bearish since late October, early November and guess what if those same people that just posted to this blog would take just a few minutes to read they would find I have not wavered from the QID one bit since then. I have stated on here over and over exactly what stocks I am in. Guess what, when I go back and read the facts I find that Greg Ruffin, that would be me, has been one hell of a hard headed BEAR with one thing in mind. QID. I find that he preached it from $35 to $55. I find that I went back for some more honey and got burned. OOPS that's called a fuck up. OOPS that means I get hung in public. I have wavered on NYX and SBUX. Yes I have. That is the truth. I have lost my focus and my conviction on the buy side of any stock right now and I am sharing that in public. Why? Because these crazy markets scare me and the last time I saw this type of crazy action the market died and everyone around me lost money while I was in cash back in 2000 through 2003. I never got burned then and I do not intend to get burned now, so I am extremely cautious. It took those markets 39 long months to die and be born again back then. I see the same thing happening on a grander scale this time.
Now there are some like Wes who tried in vain to get my attention. My hat is off to Mr. Wes it truly is because he was only trying to help and I was to stupid and hard headed to listen. Guess what, you get burned in a market like this if you are sloppy and I was sloppy for not going long on a dime after my QID hit my target almost to the dollar at $55. It goes against everything I know to go back into uncharted territory which was what I did when I went back into a vehicle that was already used up for the time being. I knew that vehicle better than anyone. I was the one that picked it back in April of 2007 to go from $35 to $55 but then I got stupid for not sticking to my plan. So that is one more lesson for me, never steal the same car twice.
Here is something else I failed to take notice of and it was a gift that I over looked and it was given to me but I ignored it.
I was told by someone in the know who I is a professional stock broker that he liked the fear he was hearing in of my other friends voice on January 22, 2008 as the market was tumbling.
My friend told me that it made him mad because this stock broker friend of his said, "you know what, when I hear guys like you this scared it means to me to begin buying stocks." Another words my friend has 35 plus years of trading on the floor of the NYSE. He was scared, hell as scared as I was to buy. He told me this story. I told him, you know they say it's always toughest to buy when you should be buying. It's always hard. That is the moment I let slip away. The advice his friend had shared with him and then he shared with me that very day just several hours later and we discussed it and I we even talked about it and then I did nothing. I failed the moment, the signal to switch to buying during one of the fastest bounces in this markets history. The man he had talked to went right to work somewhere in New York and went to buying along with the rest of Wall Street. So these are things I have to share and look at to learn from my mistakes. I was given the inside scoop from the people who move your money and mine in BIG ways and I let it slip away because I did not listen.
It all makes since now. My friend did 35 years of floor trading as a market maker on the NYSE. He told me he had never been so scared that he was unsure. Now it all makes since. He said he had never seen this type of crazy action, it was insane. So as I look back in retrospect I see this. His level of fear and mine was huge more than ever. That level of uncertainty coincides in proportion exponentially with the markets largest point swing ever.
The intra day high on the DOW was 12866 on Jan. 14, 2008
It fell to an intra day low of 11,508 five trading sessions later on Jan. 22, 2008
IN 5 days the DOW fell 1358 points from intra day highs to intra day lows
Then in it's next 8 days from January 22 it surged to an intra day high of 12841 on Feb. 1, 2008 a gain of 1333 points.
In my rear view mirror which is all I have left after leaving the QID car all bashed up yesterday I see this when I pear into the past.
I see the last 13 trading sessions. I see 1358 point dump followed by a 1333 point pump for a grand total of 2691 points of total frigging insaness in only 13 trading days.
Read this below.
"The swing from negative to positive territory of 631.86 points was the largest point move since July 24, 2002, according to Dow Jones Indexes. The largest intraday point swing, a metric that Dow started calculating in 1995, was a 721-point swing on April 14, 2000."
These two points in history occurred with a market seeking it's death bed as it had the same behavior then as now except now I see it as more exaggerated. The DOW bottomed on March 12, 2003 on an intra day of 7397. It's top had been set on January 14, 2000 at intra day of high of 11,908 and closed at 11,722.
Human behavior has unchanging patterns that repeat.
Below are some links that have me wondering about the truth and where things will wash out soon.
If you do not understand the seriousness of the current situation concerning the bond insurers like MBIA and AMBAC you should read at the least the first link below.
I love this headline below. It makes me feel so much better that the great FED has made all the problems go away and our markets are happy once again and there is really nothing to worry about. Nothing at all. Our DOW should race on off now to 16,000 and beyond. They waved the magic wand and now everything is OK. Yeah, right.
I am staying clear of this market until AMBAC and MBIA get the backing or they get downgraded. I see BS written all over everything and it scares me enough to just set tight for 2 weeks maybe even a month in all cash. You want to know my conviction, IT'S 100% STOP FOR ME. I am 100% convinced I have zero idea what to do. I AM NOT DOING ANYTHING, NOTHING RIGHT NOW. I AM NOT PLAYING THE MARKETS.
I am all in cash. It's my way right now and I am sticking to it. I am saving money, have zero debt, live well below my means, and could care less right now about trying to figure out where this crazy ass market is going. Yeah I need a vacation, a break, some time to watch this nutty thing unfold, you bet I do, and more power to you if you are genius enough to play it perfectly right now. I never claimed I was perfect and never will. What I have always said is when I am not sure I will not sugar coat things. I will not guess. If I see I am getting sloppy I will take myself out of the game before I hurt myself or others. Some of you have reminded me of the extreme importance of this. You may not have been real nice in doing so but I did get the messages loud and clear. There is no room for BS, nor room for the slightest mistake when you are dealing with money.
Here is what I would love to see now.
Why don't some of you that have experience share more of your knowledge and views here to help others. This blog never was created solely for me. I do not know why people always think that. Take the stage and show us how good your calls are. Don't be afraid to share if you are a true genius with the markets. I am all ears and I am sure there are others here that would like a fresh outlook from others.
If you can contribute real usable material about how to play these markets to benefit people then let's see how big your heart is, let's see your advice or your point of view. Let's not waste time proving I am human and that I make mistakes, that is a fact and we do not need waste time and energy proving a given. It is healthy to learn from mistakes and I appreciate all the posts declaring I needed help.
So here is what I am looking at.
FORECLOSURE RATES
CREDIT CARD DEFAULTS CONTINUE TO SORE
OTHERS
There are may more reasons I am so uncertain right now. The point is I am uncertain and in no mood to guess. I will leave that to the other experts here who seem to know much much more than I. So, I ask those experts to please come forward with their opinions, their in depth knowledge of the world markets and let's hear from you because Greg Ruffin/VFRTXN is now on official break for at least two weeks.
For the next two weeks it would be nice to see someone step up and swing the bat. It's always easy to swing that bat at me, now it's time for you who beat me over the head to prove how good you truly are. Let's see how much insight you want to share and how much you want to stick your neck out and BTW if you are wrong I will not rub it in like some sick juvenile delinquent. That is not my style.
Love always,
V.
PS
If I want to write poetry in a separate room here on this blog you do not have to read it. You can say I am nuts because this is suppose to be some type of investment blog. Good for you for being critical. That will not stop me from what I love to do. I love to write poetry and if you just can't get over the fact I love something with passion and you feel it should not be shared then that is your problem not mine. Have a nice day.
2 comments:
It may be that Wes was sincerely trying to help, but there was absolutely nothing in his post that explained why he believed the market would go back up - I asked and got no response. Until those who post a point of view back it up with facts (or at least educated opinions)as you do with your links and explanations,V, one has no choice but to look at these posts with a skeptical eye. This could be a great site for an exchange of ideas as well as for learning if posters kept this in mind. Also - the personal attacks on this site has become depressing. Have so many become Simon Cowells with no respect for the feelings of others? Come on guys, this is not American Idol. If you have nothing good to say about V or anyone else, don't say anything - have a little decency. There's enough hate in this world to go around. We don't need more of it here.
Thank you for featuring my website on your post (downgradetheinsuerers.wordpress.com)
I truly believe the insurers, especially ambac and mbia, will be downgraded shortly to keep the credibility of the U.S. market in tact.
When this event happens wall street will feel these ripple effect spread to unimaginable places including every financial instrument mbia and ambac insuered (around $1 trillion dollars worth)
Disclaimer: I am short mbia
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