Tuesday, July 27, 2010

SPOOKED OUT OF THE MARKETS FOR NOW

Tonight I got spooked, very spooked.

I have been told by some people I know who are in the know that the business owners they represent

in the investment world that there is an increasing negative overtone among those business owners.

Today's consumer confidence report came out negative supporting this theme.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38428786/Consumer_Confidence_Falls_Lowest_Since_February

SHILLER SENDS CHILLS

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38429491

Chance of Double-Dip US Recession is High: Shiller

Published: Tuesday, 27 Jul 2010 | 10:48 AM ET

"For me a double-dip is another recession before we've healed from this recession ... The probability of that kind of double-dip is more than 50 percent," Shiller said. "I actually expect it."

http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/kansascity/stories/2010/07/26/daily14.html

Yes rail traffic is up, yes trucking is up a bit, yes shipping rates are up, yes all this sounds

good but there are some major things missing from the puzzle.

http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/kansascity/stories/2010/07/26/daily15.html?surround=lfn

Jobs. Jobs in mass are not feeding our nations need. Our middle class is being killed off like an endangered speices.

Do you see mass job creation? I don't. The market will fall back hard soon I feel because this recovery can not move

us forward with such tight credit and loss of job creation.

LETS TALK HOUSING

Home Vacancies Rise as U.S. Ownership Falls to Lowest in Decade

About 18.9 million homes in the U.S. stood empty during the second quarter as surging foreclosures helped push ownership to the lowest level in a decade.

"There are a lot of people losing their homes and either moving in with family or renting places to live," said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. "Foreclosures are still going up."

The U.S. median home price tumbled 29 percent to an eight- year low of $164,600 in February, according to the Realtors. The median had reached a record high of $230,300 in July 2006.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-27/vacancies-climb-as-u-s-home-ownership-falls-to-lowest-level-in-a-decade.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-27/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-rise-more-than-estimated-case-shiller-says.html

There exists a mixed bag of info but the one thing that is not mixed is JOBS.

We need millions upon millions of new jobs. Do you see any signs of this creation anytime soon?

I don't.

I see this going on instead, brought to you by the Obama administration.

Shallow-Drilling 'Ban' Costs Hercules $150,000 a Day: CEO

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38412478?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

"We currently have 48 marketed rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and there's 14 idle," Rynd said. "By this September, you can have 70 percent of the Gulf of Mexico shallow-water jack-up fleet idle due to no permits."

If that happens, Hercules will make the "tough decision" on layoffs. One reason Hercules wants to avoid layoffs is there's no guarantee former employees would be available to come back if permits are issued again.

"Then when the operations do start back, you're starting back with less experienced crews, more intense training, and it can really impact your efficiency and the safety," Rynd said.

President Obama will be blamed for dragging his feet and causing higher unemployment.

With a great earnings season upon us it's interesting to see the contrast from Wall Street to Main Street. It's easy to understand how earnings are higher with all the fat that has been cut over the past years. What is confounding though and a mystery is how we expect our markets to go higher with people needing massive job creation in this country.

If Obama and his tree hugging army don't watch it with the drilling restrictions now we could see oil spike much higher sending an earnings killing arrow straight into the heart of our economic engine. Increased energy costs are the last thing we all need.

Spooked for now. I shall seek out shorting this market again very soon.

Monday, July 26, 2010

TASR.....TASER International, Inc.(NasdaqGS: TASR)

Keep an eye on TASR.

I think they have been sand bagging their numbers.

They report at 11 Eastern 7-27-10.

Be ready to play some momo.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TASR

Sunday, July 25, 2010

VZ IS GOING TO CLIMB NOW ON FREE CASH FLOW, Verizon Communications Inc. Com(NYSE: VZ)

It's all about free cash flow. VZ has a lot of it these days, read on.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/verizon-reports-strong-wireless-fios-customer-growth-increased-enterprise-revenues-strong-cash-flow-in-2q-2010-07-23?reflink=MW_news_stmp

$9.8 billion in cash flow from operations during 2Q 2010, up 29.8 percent from 2Q 2009; $5.5 billion in free cash flow (non-GAAP), up 76.7 percent.

'Solid Improvement in Operational Results'

"Verizon showed solid improvement in operational results in the quarter," said Chairman and CEO Ivan Seidenberg. "In addition, the wireline spinoff to Frontier on July 1 improves our future growth profile. We see the opportunity to create additional shareholder value with a revenue portfolio that is now more heavily focused on wireless, FiOS and global IP."

Seidenberg added, "We have the network platforms in place, and the product and service innovations in the pipeline, to fuel the next generation of growth in our changing industry. Our cost-reduction efforts are gaining momentum, and trends in the global business market are showing signs of stabilization."

At the end of the second quarter, the company had 86.2 million retail customers, which represented nearly 94 percent of the company's wireless customers, the largest number of retail customers of any U.S. wireless provider.

Wireless

Verizon Wireless continued to lead the industry in cost efficiency. Monthly cash expense per customer (non-GAAP) decreased in the second quarter 2010 to $26.48, from $27.42 in the comparable period in 2009.

In the second quarter, data revenues increased to 34.5 percent of all service revenues, up from 29.3 percent in the second quarter 2009.

..........................................................................................................................................................................................................

The Divvy Play

Within the Dow Jones index, only Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) offer dividend yields above 6%. Among the S&P 500 dividend aristocrats, only Pitney-Bowes (Pitney Bowes Inc.">PBI) and CenturyLink offer yields in that range.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/216312-a-cheap-internet-stock-with-high-dividend-yield

Read on it gets better.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/is-the-verizon-iphone-a-vod/414248

ITS ABOUT TO GET MUCH BETTER AT VZ.

Verizon Wireless may sell as many as 12 million iPhones next year after the largest U.S. mobile-phone carrier begins offering the device, widening its lead over AT&T Inc., analysts say.

Verizon Wireless will start selling Apple Inc.'s iPhone to customers in January, two people familiar with the plans said yesterday. AT&T has had exclusive claim on the device in the U.S. since it was introduced in 2007.

Verizon Wireless will likely sell about 12 million iPhones in the first year, UBS AG analyst John Hodulik said in an interview. Three to four million of those may be to customers the company draws from other wireless carriers, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-30/verizon-may-sell-12-million-iphones-the-year-after-at-t-exclusivity-ends.html

My stock pick for the next 24 months is Verizon, VZ.

They will steal many current subscribers away from AT&T as their plans will be cheaper IMHO. They already stole me away from AT&T. I have been with AT&T since 1991. They lost me last week because I bought an IPHONE and my first bill was going to be $213 bucks which I recieved already. I took back my IPHONE within 3 days and got all of my money back. I went to Walmart and bought a Straight Talk Plan For $45 bucks per month. It gives me everything unlimited with no contract and a flat rate of $45 per month. It uses the Verizon network. I had 12 dropped calls with my IPHONE in oone day. I have zero dropped calls now in the last week with my new Verizon Straight Talk phone.

STRAIGHT TALK GOES IPHONE?????????

http://www.straighttalk.com/

I dont know if this will happen but they could literally rob most customers away from AT&T if they offered plans this cheap with the IPHONE.

I know this, AT&T sticks it to their customers big time and they lost me in the process.

I say VZ is a red hot stock pick NOW.

Take a look at it, do your own research. I say it's a winner.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

FEAR IS A GOOD THING

The SPX 1040 level is key, very key as we all know.

So will they throw money at it or will that level give way like it was nothing?
I am so glad I have had most of my money in cash since 2007. I am terrible at short term trading, way to emotional as you know. I have to protect me from me and I made a new years resolution for 2010 NOT to move big money into my day trading account. I do not know if you remember way back to Oct 31, 2009 or so I lost $7,000 in one day going long. That was my last day trading escapade. Since then I have traded small amounts to no success really, spinning my wheels.

ON THE OTHER HAND,
I advocate dollar cost averaging and saving cash...I can do that and not screw it up and over the years...man it has worked for me. I went all in from 2003 to 2007 long. Since then I have been way to scared. Its that easy for me. This day trading crap for me the last five years...a joke... Like RIG....you remember me calling it on the day it bottomed. Oh great call but to scared to buy it until it went up even more. I suck. I make calls then I don't buy my own calls, only to watch them take off.

I am at home and comfortable with fearing this market and saving cash. Funny, that is what most Americans are doing, saving, those who can anyway. Companies are saving as well.
There is too much fear to spend big money on things for the most part.
I fear that the fear is here to stay for a long while, not because of this week's action or this years or the last three years of market action. I fear
that our way of life as we knew it and the easy money of hefty profits and markets like the 90s may not be back for a long time. Yeah March 2009 to April 2010 was a great trip down memory lane, but it was short lived I fear. An emotional outburst of hope followed by the long sting of the coming reality of a country, of a world awash in debt.

We shall see. A long and protracted slow down, one of great pain that will last years is coming. I said that in 2007. Things have not changed, the long slow ride is here.

I have feared these markets since I got out in 2007. I have dabbled a bit with trading since then, nothing like the old days and I have not subjected my cash base to it.

I know this for a fact. I would have been better off if I had never traded a single stock since 2007. That is a fact. My savings plan and discipline with dollar cost averaging

is far better than any trading scheme I have come across.

Fear these markets and respect them for they have made many of my friends lose a lot of money in the last few years and these markets can slay a wanna be trader.

I know, for I was slayed in 2005 trying to be a day trader.

Full of hope, full of despair we ride the magic carpet of emotions up and down the waves from day to day as the ocean of the markets kick our boat here and there all the while the big picture we are floating within is being formed. Guesses, speculation, calculations, charts and formations, all but small paddles in a vast expanse of unknowing.

I think the simplest thing to do is nothing, the most profitable thing to do is watch and save while others drown in the speculation pool. When we see spending by companies taking place, when we see jobs being formed, when we see our profit margins increase where we work and our revenues streams grow, when we see all the old things of a healthy capitalistic society floating by, then we shall declare that a real recovery is here to stay for longer than an a few months or the all clear signal is thrown out to soon. Then we shall unfurl our sails of greed and we shall be buyers again in our stocks. I shall by the fear when there is more fear than we can imagine, when all seems lost like March 2009 was.
Flares popping all the time lighting the market landscape declaring the worst is past, those are too easy to spot as just one more hollow promise. When we see real cash being spent on all levels, when we see the things we know to be right in a healthy economy then we can all trust a real recovery is here.

Till then....I am sticking to my life vest of fear, my cash safely away from the game of chance and I shall watch the sharks devour those who try to slay the markets.